This was initially posted to reddit on April 30, 2016.
If you just want the raw data summary, check the appendices at the bottom.
Note: I apologize for the unusual names, these are not standardized to what you see on the market, but instead are ripped straight from steamapps\common\Counter-Strike Global Offensive\csgo\scripts\items\items_game.txt. If so inclined, you will be able to match the id from there to the stickers in the data.
A dataset of this size should allow reasonable conclusions to be drawn, and the goal of this post is to show the relative value any given sticker adds to a market listing.
As all price information is logged, a baseline price is established for each item by finding the minimum price seen on the market over the last seven days (seven day period ending as of the time of this analysis April 29, 2016). The difference between a listing price and the baseline price is recorded as the price delta. This implicitly normalizes all price information, and the underlying item can be ignored. This has a small (unmeasured) affect of biasing more liquid/higher volume items to a "true" price, while lower volume items will display a higher amount of variance. This may or may not affect the conclusions drawn here.
This post is not attempting to prescribe an answer to the question "how much value does this sticker add?" In order to do that, the amount that any listing sold for would have to be known, as there are surely a large number of listings "overpriced" on the market due to the stickers included and have not yet been sold. Instead, this report evaluates the price of items on the market and describes how certain stickers affect the price an item is listed for.
Another factor that may influence the conclusions drawn here are recent events. That is, the most recent major will probably have the most stickers in circulation, as older stickers will be on items in "retired" accounts; this is an untested assumption and may or may not have significance.
If tournament stickers are ignored, then the most frequently seen stickers are "Drug War Veteran (seen 9061 times)", "Thug Life (seen 7175 times)," and "Headshot Guarantee (seen 6379 times)." Non-tournament stickers are much more common than any individual tournament sticker, including stickers expected to be relatively rare such as Howling Dawn, which comes in at position 313 (seen 1026 times). The three most infrequently seen non-tournament stickers are "Bombsquad (foil)" (seen 57 times), "Trick or Treat" (seen 57 times), and "Witch" (seen 61) times.
Unsurprisingly, the sticker that has the most affect on the price of an item is the iBUYPOWER Katowice 2014 (holo), which increases the price of an item on average by $204.73 [Appendix B]. In fact, all of the largest price increases come from Katowice 2014 stickers with three exceptions: 1) at position number 3, the iBUYPOWER DreamHack 2014 (gold) sticker with an average price increase of $96.96, 2) at position number 4, the LGB Katowice 2015 (foil) with an average price increase of $92.98, and 3) at position number 7, the jasonr (gold) signature foil; this sticker was only seen seven times, five of which where between $30 and $170 above the current market price and occurred around the time of the Columbus major, while the remaining two times occurred within the past week and were $0.03 and $0.20 above market price. Tournament stickers make up the bulk of known stickers, and of the 160 stickers which cause the average price of an item to increase by $10 or more, 153 of those are tournament stickers.
If non-tournament stickers are considered, then the sticker which affects price the most is the Howling Dawn sticker, with an average premium of $44.62, followed by the "Crown (foil)" at $35.15. This falls off sharply, such that the seventh sticker, the "Fire starter (holo)" is the last sticker to raise the price of an item by more than $10 above market price.
An aggregate of the average price delta was calculated per collection, and shown in the table below, in USD cents.
+--------------------+-------+ | Collection | Delta | +--------------------+-------+ | tournament_assets | 2961 | | emskatowice2014 | 2914 | | dhw2014 | 521 | | community01 | 490 | | columbus2016 | 480 | | dreamhack | 468 | | stickers2 | 366 | | eslkatowice2015 | 362 | | cologne2014 | 289 | | community02 | 277 | | pinups_capsule | 248 | | enfu_capsule | 245 | | standard | 211 | | slid3_capsule | 205 | | cologne2015 | 203 | | team_roles_capsule | 202 | | cluj2015 | 180 | +--------------------+-------+note: The "tournament_assets" collection seems to only contain the "allstars a" and "allstars b" holo from the recent Columbus 2016 major, and only seems to be found on souvenir items. example: 20160430csgo-image-1.jpg.
Appendix B -- CS:GO Sticker Price Delta https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ns_y_NP5Bno-PUBMgpIUWvAgxBWcp1DmOtSnXcZJadY/edit?usp=sharing